| Next Generation Internet on the way Data on the Web will be measured in zettabytes as computers get increasingly smart 05/31/2001 By DOUG BEDELL / The Dallas Morning News As director of Internet technology and strategy at IBM, Mike Nelson and his team are exploring the Next Generation Internet, a world in the not-too-distant future where everything will be connected to the worldwide network all the time. How will Internet servers handle the massive amounts of data coming online? What are the implications for consumer privacy? What role will Linux and other open-source operating systems play? These are the questions that vex Mr. Nelson's soul.
Before joining IBM in July 1998, Mr. Nelson was director for technology policy at the Federal Communications Commission and served as special assistant for information technology at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. Mr. Nelson has been involved in numerous projects that attempt to anticipate problems of worldwide connectivity. Currently, he is participating in the Global Internet Project, a coalition of 14 telecommunications and computer companies working to address key Internet issues. He was in Dallas recently for the 2001 BusinessWeek Telecommunications Summit, a gathering of senior executives to discuss the latest developments in fast Internet access and its deployment. Mr. Nelson talked about the promises and pitfalls that will face the Next Generation Internet. DMN: You're in town to discuss the future of fast Internet access. What does IBM see when it looks at the future of broadband? NELSON: Our estimate is that by the year 2010, we're going to see a 1 millionfold increase in the amount of information on the Internet. We already have petabytes of information online, which is several hundred times the contents of the Library of Congress. Our estimate is that between now and 2010, it will increase to a zettabyte: a 1 followed by 21 zeros. Sorting through all that information, securing all that information, will require a lot of new technologies that we don't have today. In particular, our team is working to develop prototypes of the Next Generation Internet to see what it's like to have 2, 3, 5 megabits per second [going] to your desktop, to see what it's like to have wireless connections, wireless and high speed, running anywhere you go. DMN: There is a lot of consumer frustration with the rollout of cable and DSL access to neighborhoods. What's going to change that? NELSON: Over the next three to five years, we expect to see broadband quite commonplace and quite affordable. The Next Generation Internet is about a lot more than just speed. One of the things people are finding most important about DSL and cable modems is that it's always on. You don't waste time on dial-up. My 4-year-old daughter is going to grow up and in six or seven years, she's going to turn me and say, "Daddy, what's a modem?" because that's not going to be part of her life. She's going to be used to devices that are always [connected] to the Internet. DMN: What does that mean to a company like IBM? NELSON: You need to have the servers, the storage to make it available. We've just announced something called the Eliza project. By creating servers that manage themselves, that protect themselves, that configure themselves, we hope to dramatically reduce the cost of information systems management. We're looking forward to seeing a world in which businesses move all their processes online. ... Today's technology could not cope with that. DMN: Why do you call it Eliza, anyway? NELSON: It's inspired by the lizard. Because our top-of-the-line servers now have about the same processing power as a lizard. They process images and respond to data about as fast as our servers do. But lizards are much more intelligent. They have ability to respond to their environments. They can protect themselves from a threat. And that's what we are trying to do with our servers. DMN: IBM is making a tremendous push with the Linux operating system. How does Linux figure into IBM's vision of the Next Generation Internet? NELSON: Today, you have to worry whether your browser works with your e-mail system. You have to worry about whether an attachment someone sent is in the right format. Things don't always work right together. In the future, many more of the technologies of the Internet will be built on Linux and open source software [which allows anyone to offer improvements to a program] like Linux, which means it will be easy to put the pieces all together. That's one of the big reasons we're so gung-ho on Linux. IBM is spending millions of dollars and taking some of most important software code and adding it to Linux. That means that Linux is getting better and better, faster and faster, than any other operating system out there. DMN: For the home user, Linux is often criticized as being too complicated, although there have been radical improvements in the desktop in recent years. Where else will Linux be found in our homes? NELSON: You're seeing a lot more people putting it on their desktop. But I think the most exciting thing is that Linux will start to be deployed on other appliances. We have micro-version, a micro Linux kernel [the core portions of a program that handle essential operating system tasks] that we can put on cell phones and PDAs [personal digital assistants]. We estimate that in three years, half the people using the Internet will not be using a PC. They'll be using it in kiosks, televisions, refrigerators, cell phones and who knows what else. Linux will be there. DMN: We're already at the point where set-top boxes such as ReplayTV can be controlled via the Web. But at the same time, when I can see my ReplayTV hard drive inside a password-protected Web site, I'm a little uneasy. Some company knows my viewing habits now. This worries people to no end. NELSON: This is a great threshold we need to cross. This is one of the showstopper issues for development of the Internet. There are three, really: privacy, security and intellectual property. We've got to figure those things out. We believe at IBM that most of these problems can be dealt with without regulation. If we give people their own personal tools, they can control their own personal data. They can protect their own data. And we're working very closely with the content creators to give them tools to protect their own intellectual property so they won't have to go and sue people. These are all challenging issues. DMN: In your service with the Global Internet Project, how do you see the Net faring as other countries attempt to restrict access to American content they find offensive or unsettling? NELSON: The exciting thing that we are seeing is the Internet knock down barriers to information. Governments are realizing that they can't control the media. A few countries have tried, but they haven't done very well. I think we will see more freedom of the press in more places. I think there is a real problem in that some people don't necessarily want to see everything that's on the Internet. Some countries are using that as an excuse for censorship. The more enlightened countries are promoting ways for individuals to practice personal censorship. If I don't want things to come into my home, I should have a way to prevent that. In more and more cases, we're seeing family-friendly Internet services that filter the Web so that adult material, violent material and illegal material don't come into your home. If there is choice and competition, I think people will pay more for those services that provide them with the content they want and keep out the content they don't. Technology writer Doug Bedell can be sent e-mail at dbedell@dallasnews.com.
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